Thanks to Baby Got Books the other day, I had the opportunity to read two blog posts (or articles that happen to have been written for blogs, to be precise) that discuss the future of the humble bookstore in our modern now-a-go-go society. (The first piece is by Clay Shirky; the second by Cory Doctorow. Both are worth reading.) I spent some years of my life as a bookseller. I met my wife by applying for a job as a bookseller. (She didn’t know what kind of trouble she was getting into when she hired me.) I do not claim to be an expert on how to run a bookstore and have no claims to prescience in terms of what will happen to the industry. However, a few things occur to me that I would like to add to the discussion, notions that I think worth considering and that might give a clearer picture of the future of an institution that I love.
The first thing that occurs to me is that both Shirky and Doctorow start with an assumption that hasn’t yet really been proven, and that is that bookselling is moving inexorably online and that there will be no place for offline–hereafter known as “real”–bookstores in the marketplace. The analogy drawn is with the demise of the record store, an analogy that I think is as false as it is facile. Record stores succumbed to online retailers–and did so at least half a generation sooner than bookstores are supposed to despite being part of a similar timeline–in part because online retailers could offer samples easily and efficiently and because they could reduce the album back to a collection of singles that could be purchased separately or collectively. None of this applies to the world of the book, where online sampling is limited and cumbersome, and where books are books and not potentially subsets of themselves. While it is convenient and tempting to lump music and literature together under the heading of “Media,” it does not help us draw a reliable analogy.
They are also both under the misapprehension that bookstores depend on hardcover bestsellers for the bulk of their revenue, which is not and has not been true for a very long time. I’m not really sure that it ever was true. When Barnes & Noble sells the latest Grisham or The Da Vinci Code at 40% off, they are selling at their own cost. Since they are also paying for other expenses, such as rent, electric, and payroll, they take a small loss on each bestseller sale. (Big publishers are the only ones who depend on bestsellers, and they, as I point out elsewhere, are working from a flawed business model.) So does Amazon. And retailers such as Target and WalMart, which are–as Mr. Shirky points out–fighting a price war by discounting bestsellers by 50% and more, are taking a real shellacking on them. Bestsellers are now, and have been for some time, merely the bait for the trap. The hope is that customers will rush to one’s establishment–either online or here in the haggard world of time-and-space–to get the latest potboiler and also pick up another item while they are there, with any luck one that has a profit margin that will more than make up for the loss that comes from the bestseller.
This hurts independent bookstores because they don’t have as much wiggle room and can less afford to take the chance on using deep discounts on some books as a means of perhaps selling others. It’s a gamble, and few people go into the business of selling books because they like to gamble. And so they play it safe and find that they have a hard time competing. As usual in this modern world, money is power.
The idea that bookstores are simply disappearing is not true: Barnes & Noble reports that comparable store sales for the current fiscal year are expected to decrease, but only by 2%-to-4% in a slow economy. That is hardly the sound of the death knell yet. Borders is having a harder go of it, but they are compensating by dumping “multimedia inventory,” which accounted for 71% of a $99.1 million dollar inventory reduction. In other words, they are relying on book sales to get them through. They see this as being their best bet.
And now I am going to say the most surprising thing of all: This might be a good time for the long-lamented independent bookstore.
And that is a thought I will get to in the next installment, which I will write after I’ve had a bit more time to ponder.